What is the dropout rate for doctorate?

The dropout rate for a doctorate varies by discipline and institution but can range from 30% to 50%

Aside from the fact that doing a doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) seems to put you at a greater risk of being anxious or depressed than other occupations, some students may also face the question: will I ever finish my thesis/project/dissertation at all? This post dives deep into research about doctoral attrition and completion and what factors make dropping out more likely. Do not give up!… unless you want to.

Sometimes, a doctorate [PhD, DSL, DBA] (or life outside of it) can be so draining and demanding that it is no longer possible to finish. There may be any number of reasons why a doctorate student can’t make it to the end.

Whether you are concerned about dropout rates, are interested in the likelihood of finishing, or are thinking about dropping out, the doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) dropout or non-completion rate is surprisingly high and surprisingly variable.

The percentage of students who don’t complete their doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) varies hugely; some institutions report as high as 71% and some as low as 9%. The doctorate non-completion rate depends on many factors, such as the subject or department you are studying in, your age, and whether you have a good mentor.

A doctorate of any type is challenging, but sometimes the odds might be more stacked against you than you realize.

The difference between dropping out, moving around, and failing

There is a difference between dropping out of a doctorate program (i.e., non-completion) and failing (i.e., not passing a viva or thesis submission). Outright failing a doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) is relatively low; in the US and the UK, Discover PhDs found this to be just 3.3% of students. You will likely be requested to make minor or significant corrections after a review, but outright failure is rare. If you find yourself in this 3.3%, don’t panic that it was all for nothing; Discover PhDs found that 97% were awarded an MPhil. (basically equivalent to a 2 year PhD in the UK). So essentially, only 3% of 3%, fail-fail.

It is common for students to move around institutions either by pre-arrangement or otherwise. Direct transfers tend to be very uncommon, but they do happen. Generally, they would probably need to be a partner institution. However, some students may start in one place and decide that the department or program is not a good fit for them; they love doing their doctorate program but end that particular one and start a new one at another institution. This is not uncommon, and I have known a few students in my DSL to do this. So, although this is viewed as a non-completion, the students themselves still achieved a terminal degree.

The drop out rate can vary dramatically by institution

the PhD dropout rate in the United States can vary significantly between different institutions, with factors like the specific field of study, quality of advising, funding availability, and the overall reputation of the program contributing to these differences; meaning some universities may have much higher PhD completion rates than others.

A frequently cited study about completion rates of PhD students was published by the Council of Graduate Schools in 2008. Titled PhD Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Demographic Data from the PhD Completion Project, the paper was authored by Robert Sowell, Ting Zhang, Nathan Bell, and Kenneth Redd.

Data from PhD programs at 22 research partners and 18 project partners were included in Phase II of the CGS study. At the aggregate level, the data indicated that 57% of the doctoral candidates in the sample completed their degree programs within ten years, and 20% completed them after seven years. Completion rates ranged widely across disciplines.

What does the failure or dropout rate tell you?

A high non-completion rate at an institution may not always be bad. It could indicate that they are giving opportunities to students who may not otherwise have been able to do a terminal degree (PHD, DSL, DBA) elsewhere. Overall, it is likely that these will have a higher dropout rate due to having lower qualifications, for example. Still, there will also be a significant proportion that will succeed and go on to have a great career.

It may be that the institution has a high diversity of students. International students often have complex funding issues that aren’t always sorted out in time, meaning the student has to pull out.

They may have a higher proportion of mature students. Mature students often come with extra life commitments, such as financial demands, and returning to study may be more challenging than they initially realized. Age could be considered a ‘risk factor,’ though you can do a doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) at any age. However, being under 26 years of age increases your chances of success by around 50% (Groenvynck, Vandevelde, and Rossem, 2013) and Vassil and Solvak (2012) also found that being over 30 increased the risk of non-completion. I was in my late 40s when I started!

If an institution has higher achievement standards, such as more rigorous course work, assessments/testing, and a stricter review procedure, more students may not make the grade. While some institutions are more willing to hold their students’ hands over the finish line, even almost pushing in some cases, others are less inclined to take this approach.

However, on the other hand, a high number of students who fail to receive a doctorate does indicate warning signs, especially if a department or institution is particularly high.

It could indicate department-wide issues such as poor staff behavior, inadequate resources for your subject, and/or a lack of communication and engagement.

Institution-wide, it could indicate a lack of student support services or even acceptance, particularly for those groups I’ve mentioned above but also for those with disabilities and short or long-term illnesses. Racism, misogyny, and colonialism (amongst others) are unfortunately too frequent in academia and make the journey much more difficult for many ethnicities and genders; some universities and departments are much worse than others.

There may be so much red tape to wade through to get an issue sorted that students lose the energy to keep going. It may be due to poor university management and a lack of value placed on PhD students. Talk to others in the area where you’re interested in studying.

What does the literature say about students dropping out?

There are numerous reasons why a doctorate student may drop out. These reasons tend to be either realizing a terminal degree (PHD, DSL, DBA) is not for them, that something else is preventing them from continuing, or that the university has decided the student is having trouble meeting the program’s requirements. The last reason is not common, but it does happen.

According to Groenvynck, Vandevelde, and Rossem (2013), discipline and funding providers are the primary reasons for dropping out of a doctorate program. Funding was not even a thing when I went for my doctorate, and I paid out of pocket for it. For example, social sciences were the worst-performing discipline, with a completion rate of just 29.4% compared to 62.4% for those students studying natural sciences.

Conversely, Vassil and Solvak (2012) did not find the same result but instead pointed to issues surrounding challenging individual circumstances. They noted that they expected that these circumstances are, in fact, not individual but relate to wider, more general structural problems such as low rates of pay.

Within the biomedical sciences discipline, Benzon et al. (2020) found that having a great mentor/chairperson (along with working at the same time in an academic field) increased success rates.

In response to Palatinate, Durham University indicated that many students within several disciplines (including Education) are mature students and view this as a reason for a low success rate.

These studies suggest that there is no one cause of dropping out, but instead, there may be a unique combination of factors linked to where and what you’re studying, your support network, and your circumstances.

If you’re thinking about dropping out, here’s something to try

If you’re reading this, dropping out is likely on your mind. Honestly, it’s probably crossed every doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) student’s mind at some point!

Ultimately, only you can decide whether to step aside from your doctorate. I want to talk about quitting a doctorate in another post, but for now, I want to ask you a question: is it the doctorate work that makes you want to quit, or is it how/where/when you’re doing the degree?

Try to separate the specific work you are doing and the field you are working in from the department, the institution, where you’re at, where you live, etc.

Maybe this will help you understand whether a doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) just isn’t for you or if something else is getting in the way. If you decide on the former, it may be best to wrap up and choose a new path; be honest with your chair/supervisor, and don’t aim to burn bridges. But do talk it through thoroughly with others who are best to advise you; don’t let a lack of confidence in your abilities or isolation get the better of you. You’ve got this! Sometimes, a break of time or a slight change may re-ignite your passion or make the best use of your skills.

If it’s the second, then that’s a lot more challenging because the passion for earning your doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) is there; it’s that life has dealt you a rough hand for whatever reason. But it may be potentially solvable. This is not the post to delve into these issues, but know that you are not alone, and I would advise talking to someone who can help and support you.

As I said at the beginning, a doctorate (PhD, DSL, DBA) is hard. Hard. It’s a challenge, and there will be many ups and downs. Abraham Lincoln puts it well: