Chapter 2 Progress Update: Weather Doesn’t Care About Your Plan

Doctorate of Strategic Leadership program Robert Forto

Chapter two of Searching for Lost Mittens centers on a lesson I learned the hard way during the 2020 Serum Run Expedition: preparation matters, but it does not guarantee control.

Thirteen of us spent nearly a year planning the expedition. We respected the history, the environment, and the risks. For the first several days on the Yukon River, the plan held. Progress was steady. Confidence grew.

Then the river changed.

Overflow appeared without warning. Gear stayed wet in fifty-below temperatures. Fatigue compounded. Assumptions about pace and safety stopped applying. Leadership stopped being theoretical and became immediate.

The turning point came when a dog musher was struck by a snow machine and had to be evacuated. Risk became personal. Responsibility sharpened. The expedition was no longer just about endurance or honoring history.

In Galena, the group faced a decision: continue under escalating risk or pull out and reassess. After long conversations, I chose to leave. The rest of the team chose to continue and eventually reached Nome.

This chapter is not about right or wrong. It’s about adaptive leadership versus rigid strategy. I didn’t leave out of fear. I left because the conditions no longer aligned with what I believed responsible leadership required. That distinction still matters to me.

The lesson followed me into business and leadership roles where solid plans became fragile because leaders held them too tightly. Overplanning creates risk when adherence is mistaken for discipline and finishing becomes more important than alignment.

The weather doesn’t care about your plan.

Neither do circumstances.

Leadership shows up in how clearly you recognize when conditions have changed and how willing you are to adjust without losing integrity.

That lesson started on a frozen river. It’s stayed with me ever since.

Read the Chapter One Progress Recap

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